The Lesotho Meteorological Services expects near-normal to above-normal rainfall over much of the country this winter, while it watches the development of an El Niño that will shape the main rainfall season from October.
THE Lesotho Meteorological Services (LMS) has forecast near-normal to above-normal rainfall over much of the eastern and central parts of the country for July to September 2026, as it monitors an El Niño expected to dominate the coming summer season.
The western lowlands have a slightly higher chance of below-normal rainfall, though near-normal conditions remain the most likely outcome across most areas. Winter is Lesotho’s dry season, and rainfall will be limited, falling mainly with the passage of cold fronts.
| Area | July to September 2026 outlook |
| Eastern and central | Near-normal to above-normal rainfall most likely |
| Western lowlands | Slightly higher chance of below-normal; near-normal still most likely |
| Country-wide | Limited winter rainfall, mainly from cold fronts |
The outlook, shown in a probability map issued with the bulletin, updates the El Niño watch statement LMS released in April under reference PWS/Bul/01/2026.
LMS said it is working with the Disaster Management Authority and the World Food Programme in Lesotho, through Anticipatory Action, to plan for possible adverse effects of El Niño. It said it is tracking sea surface temperatures to gauge how the pattern develops.
“We are, clearly, heading for an El Niño year.”
Lesotho Meteorological Services
El Niño is expected to be the dominant climate driver for the October 2026 to March 2027 rainfall season. LMS said uncertainty remains over when it will set in and how strong its effects will be, which may change the size and spread of its impacts across Lesotho and southern Africa.
LMS said it will keep watching conditions in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and issue updated seasonal forecasts as confidence in the outlook grows.
