An above-average harvest, stable import flows, and improving agricultural labour opportunities are expected to support household food access across Lesotho through September, though a worsening foot-and-mouth disease outbreak and sharply higher fuel costs present risks that policymakers and rural households cannot afford to ignore.
The main harvest, which began in April and continues through August, is projected to be above average following a rainy season that was largely average to above average between October 2025 and March 2026. Rainfall was particularly favourable in the crop-producing western and northwestern regions, driving above-average total planted area. Southern and southeastern areas entered the harvest period with crops approaching maturity under good conditions. As a result, household access to food is expected to improve progressively through September.
Winter crop preparation is also under way. Above-average rainfall in April has supported early land preparation and planting for winter wheat, particularly in the lowlands and foothills. This is creating additional agricultural labour income opportunities that are expected to persist through August, supplementing the income households are already drawing from the maize and bean harvests currently under way.
Labour migration to South Africa continues at normal levels, maintaining remittance flows as a key household income source. Combined with stable staple food prices, these factors are expected to sustain purchasing power for most rural households over the coming months.
The stability of staple food prices is notable given broader cost pressures. Fuel and diesel prices have increased by 30 and 62 per cent respectively since February, linked to the indirect effects of escalating conflict in the Middle East. Government fuel subsidies have prevented further increases, and stable import flows of maize meal and other commodities from South Africa, alongside carryover stocks from the previous marketing year, are keeping market supply adequate. While remote areas are experiencing localised price increases due to higher transport costs, prices are expected to remain broadly stable nationally.
The most significant risk to this broadly positive outlook is the foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in the highlands. The government declared a state of emergency on 27 March in response to cases in the Qacha’s Nek and Butha-Buthe districts, implementing quarantine measures, movement restrictions on livestock, and culling of affected animals. Despite these interventions, confirmed cases have risen from 66 in March to 167 as of 18 April, with additional cases reported in Mokhotlong and Leribe districts.
Livestock mortality remains low for now, and immediate impacts on household income are minimal. However, foot-and-mouth disease is highly contagious, and further spread would threaten the productive assets on which highland households depend, reducing wool and mohair sales and eroding incomes that are already structurally vulnerable. The trajectory of the outbreak over the coming weeks will be a critical indicator of whether the current broadly favourable food security picture can be sustained through to September.
| Factor | Status | Outlook to September |
|---|---|---|
| Main harvest | Above average | Improving food availability and income through August |
| Staple food prices | Broadly stable | Expected to remain stable; localised pressure in remote areas |
| Fuel prices | +30–62% since Feb | Subsidies limiting further increases; indirect cost pressure ongoing |
| Agricultural labour | Improving | Harvest and winter wheat prep providing income through August |
| Labour migration (SA) | Normal levels | Remittances continuing as key income source |
| Foot-and-mouth disease | 167 cases, spreading | Key risk; further spread could reduce livestock income significantly |
Source: FEWS NET Lesotho Key Message Update, April–September 2026. FEWS NET is a United States Government-funded activity.
